
Cowboys’ narrow loss to Commanders offers a great reason to keep Mike Zimmer around
The Cowboys ended their season with a loss coming by way of the defense breaking down on the final drive, but that doesn’t change the way this defense had rounded into form under first year coordinator Mike Zimmer.
From Week 10 on, which is the point when Micah Parsons returned from his injury, Zimmer’s defense came alive. It ranked 14th in EPA/play and seventh in EPA/dropback despite a never-ending rash of injuries in the secondary. The defense also came up with 16 takeaways in that span, bringing their season total to 22; a year ago, they finished with 26.
It became easy in recent weeks to understand the vision that many had when Zimmer was first brought back to the Cowboys last offseason. The coach is on an expiring contract, like everyone else, and his potential return likely hinges on Mike McCarthy coming back as well.
Regardless of what happens at head coach, though, Zimmer offered a great reason on Sunday as to why he should remain in charge of this defense for the long haul, and it has a lot to do with the Commanders’ superstar rookie quarterback.
Jayden Daniels has had a sensational rookie season. He finished the year sixth in EPA/play, 10th in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), and fourth in QBR. Perhaps most surprising, Daniels’ 1.7% turnover worthy play rate was the second-best mark in the league, behind only MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson.
Daniels’ rookie year wasn’t just great for a rookie, it was one of the top seasons for any quarterback. He led the Commanders to the playoffs as a rookie and looks to have a bright future. No matter what the Cowboys do with their coaching staff, any path to the playoffs will have to take into account the prospect of getting past Daniels.
Enter Zimmer.
Looking at Daniels’ full body of work, he had just four games all year where he posted a negative EPA/play figure. Two of them came against the Cowboys, and this most recent one – where Daniels finished with -0.63 EPA/play – was his worst of the year.
Sample size is an issue, of course, since Daniels only played one half before being pulled by a cautious Dan Quinn. But Daniels struggled against Zimmer in the first game against the Cowboys, too. His -0.26 EPA/play in that game was only slightly better than his -0.30 EPA/play posted against the vaunted Steelers defense. Those two games stand out as Daniels’ two worst games if we’re only counting when he played an entire game.
Of course, a -0.26 mark doesn’t even sniff the 100 worst single-game performances from quarterbacks this year (discounting statistics with small sample size, of course). That’s a testament to how good Daniels is: even his worst games aren’t game-wrecking horrible.
Still, Daniels played six quarters of meaningful football against Zimmer and this Cowboys defense and it was some of the worst football he’s played. In both games, Daniels struggled to complete passes and couldn’t even create with his elite scrambling ability. Zimmer was able to do something very few defensive coordinators did this year: contain Daniels. Not only that, but he did it twice.
Not for nothing, but if we wanted to look at the other big threat in the division, Jalen Hurts’ third-worst game of the year (going by EPA/play) also came against the Cowboys, in their first game with Parsons back on the field.
It’s hard to make the playoffs, let alone go far in the playoffs, without winning your division. For much of the McCarthy era, the NFC East has been a two-man race between the Cowboys and Eagles. Now, though, it looks like Daniels is ready to have the Commanders in the thick of it too.
So why not keep the coordinator who’s made Daniels struggle not once, but twice? Bringing Zimmer back, and adding a few extra weapons for him to work with, would be a surefire way to ensure the Cowboys stand a chance in the divisional race going forward.