Dallas Cowboys player projections call for lower offensive output in Philadelphia

It is very difficult to predict things in the NFL. After all, who saw the Dallas Cowboys beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in comfortable fashion? Obviously the end was hardly comfy, but Dallas was in control for most of the game that they wound up winning.

It was the second week in a row in which the Cowboys won as underdogs which proves that trying to predict what is going to happen with them, or any NFL team for that matter, is an inexact science. It is worth noting that oddsmakers not only incorrectly predicted the Cowboys to lose last week, but statistical projections for them were also quite off of the way things turned out.

Consider last week’s player projections from NFL Pro against what actually happened.

  • Projected Cooper Rush vs. Tampa Bay: 234.6 pass yards, 1.3 pass TD, 0.7 INT, 5.1 rush yards, 0.1 rush TD
    Actual: 292 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0 INT, -4 rush yards, 0 rush TD
  • Projected Rico Dowdle vs. Tampa Bay: 61.7 rush yards, 0.4 rush TD, 2.8 rec, 20.3 rec yards, 0.1 rec TD
    Actual: 23 yards, 0 rush TD, 3 rec, 28 rec yards
  • Projected CeeDee Lamb vs. Tampa Bay: 6.7 rec, 72.6 rec yards, 0.4 rec TD
    Actual: 7 rec, 105 yards, 0 TD
  • Projected Brandin Cooks vs. Tampa Bay: 3 rec, 37.1 rec yards, 0.3 rec TD
    Actual: 3 rec, 48 yards, 0 TD
  • Projected Jake Ferguson vs. Tampa Bay: 3.5 rec, 36.9 rec yards, 0.3 rec TD
    Actual: 6 rec, 40 yards, 0 TD

Obviously Cooper Rush over-delivered from a passing standpoint and CeeDee Lamb was the primary beneficiary of it as far as yardage was concerned.

On the ground, Rico Dowdle finally started to pick up some belief from the NFL Pro model and the Cowboys were stifled just about everywhere in that sense so he fell quite short; however, Dowdle did show up in the passing game the way the model suggested.

It is worth noting that both Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson came in around-ish their projected yardage totals. Keep that in mind relative to this week’s projections if you are in your fantasy football championship round.

On the subject of this week’s projections from NFL Pro, here they are!

These are much more modest projections for the Dallas side which suggests a belief in the Philadelphia defense rising to the occasion. You will note that the model has projections listed for Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and obviously at this point in time it is unknown whether or not he will play. Clearly if he doesn’t that will remove his own status but will also impact those of the players across the Philly offense.

You will also see that CeeDee Lamb is listed here. The projections were listed before news that he is now done for the year.

Clearly the Cowboys are going to have to overcome a number of projected disadvantages. Look how the NFL Pro model has the ground game. It is literally 100% Eagles in every single capacity.

If it isn’t obvious these projections are based off of measurements of who these teams have been all season long. You cannot toss out who Dallas was in their stretch of embarrassment, but it is not ridiculous to say that they are playing much better now than they were from the end of October right up until the Sunday before Thanksgiving. Obviously that bar is low.

Maybe the Cowboys will find a way to shock the world for a third straight week.

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