Dallas City News

The Dallas Cowboys currently have the 12th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. There are a lot of directions the team can go with this pick, but looking at what the team has done (or not done) in free agency, a case can be made that they could be targeting a wide receiver in the first round.

Multiple receivers have been mocked to the Cowboys in recent predictions. Whether they pick at 12 or move back and pick later, there are some good receivers to choose from. According to NFL Mock Draft Database, there are four receivers projected to go in the first round according to the consensus big board.

9 Tetairoa McMillian, Arizona

20 Matthew Golden, Texas

30 Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State

31 Luther Burden, Missouri

If the Cowboys select a wide receiver in the first round, how likely would they be to pick a good one? That’s hard to say, but let’s see what we can gather by looking at how previous first-round receivers have done over the last five drafts.

2024

Last year’s draft class was deep with wide receivers. Not only did seven receivers go in the first round, but 10 receivers were drafted by the fifth pick in the second round. The receiver with the most yards in their rookie season was Jacksonville’s Brian Thomas who edged out the Giants’ Malik Nabers (who missed a couple of games). Los Angeles’ Ladd McConkey was taken with the second pick in the second round and finished with 1,149 yards. Here are last year’s first-round receivers:

2023

Four receivers were taken on Day 1 in 2023 and oddly enough, they all went right after each other. While no one exploded onto the scene, three of the four have been strong contributors. Here are the receivers taken with their corresponding yards (yards from this point on will be yearly averages to compare with other years):

There was one WR selected early in the second round, but we won’t bring him up, although his name rhymes with Donathan Dingo if you like word puzzles.

2022

Six receivers were taken in the first round of 2022. Similar to 2023, there was a run on receivers with all six taken from pick 8 to pick 18. Even though they were all taken near each other, the receivers picked early have outperformed the ones picked behind them in most cases.

Jameson Williams’ numbers would be higher if he hadn’t dealt with injuries as he’s missed almost half of his games so far in his career. Speaking of missing games, Green Bay’s Christian Watson was taken early second round and has flashed at times, but he’s missed time in each of his three seasons in the league.

2021

The 2021 draft featured good receivers taken in the top 10 as LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase was the cream of the crop while the Alabama guys Jaylen Wadden and DeVonta Smith were right behind him. Things fell off a bit after that.

2020

The first round of 2020 also featured two coveted Alabama receivers, Henry Ruggs III and Jerry Jeudy. Fortunately for Dallas, those guys were taken first allowing CeeDee Lamb to fall to pick 17. Lamb wasn’t the only first-round gift as Minnesota scored Justin Jefferson after Philadelphia selected Jalen Reagor.

Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. were taken with the first two picks of the second round and they both have better yearly averages than Brandon Aiyuk.

Looking at the data

There have been 30 wide receivers selected in the first round over the last five years. Here is what we can gather from this information.

When you break it down by each year, below are the yearly averages for all the players in each draft class as well as how many players worked out for their team (criteria – a receiver must average over 700 yards to be considered a success):

• 2024: yearly average = 806 yards, success rate = 4/8 (50%)
• 2023: yearly average = 825 yards, success rate = 3/4 (75%)
• 2022: yearly average = 678 yards, success rate = 3/6 (50%)
• 2021: yearly average = 812 yards, success rate = 3/6 (50%)
• 2022: yearly average = 811 yards, success rate = 4/6 (67%)

On average a receiver drafted in the first round produces close to 800 yards a season. That’s not bad. There have been 17 receivers averaging 700 yards or more, for a combined success rate of 57%. How do you feel about those odds?

Studs

There are five wide receivers with a yearly receiving yard average of 1,200 or more yards (Jefferson, Chase, Thomas, Lamb, and Nabers). That’s 17% of the WRs drafted. That percentage moves up to 23% for receivers averaging over 1,000 yards (adding Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith). That equates to roughly a one in four chance of landing a stud.

Duds

There have been six receivers (20%) who have averaged less than 450 yards per year. They are Ruggs III, Toney, Reagor, Burks, Pearsall, and Dotson. This list features a wide receiver who either has struggled with injuries his whole career, is in prison, was shot, or was drafted by each of the non-Dallas Cowboys NFC East teams.

Conclusion

There have been a lot of good first-round receivers taken in recent years. The Cowboys’ chances of getting a good one seem decent. This year’s draft doesn’t feature as many first-round options as previous years but with the Cowboys picking at 12, they are in a good position to get one. With premium draft capital, they shouldn’t be aiming for a “solid” WR2, but a guy who is a real difference-maker so the team can roll with WR1A and WR1B for the next four years.

Of course, nothing is promised and the Cowboys could mitigate this risk by moving back and picking up some additional draft capital. Receivers like Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas, Brandon Aiyuk, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison were all first-round selections taken with pick 20 or later. The Cowboys could go that route and target a player like Egbuka or Burden, both of which look pretty darn fantastic on tape.

What do you want the Cowboys to do?