The McCarthy Chronicles: His seat is becoming hotter and hotter

The Cowboys are in a dark place right now. They were there even before Jerry Jones threatened to have local radio hosts fired for asking him tough questions on Tuesday. And while Jones has been emphatic, perhaps too much, in his insistence that he’s not firing Mike McCarthy, the notion has to be at least discussed.

For the last five years, these weekly McCarthy Chronicles have largely praised the work that the Super Bowl-winning coach has done in Dallas. The 2020 season threw a lot of curveballs his way, but McCarthy managed to instill a new culture in the locker room and end on a high note, with his Andy Dalton-led Cowboys winning three of their last four.

Since then, he’s won 12 games each year coming into this season, something no head coach has done in Dallas. The level of consistency is unprecedented in the Jerry Jones era for this franchise, at least in terms of a single coach’s tenure. And last year, McCarthy took control of the offense and improved the unit in every way: Dallas finished the year fifth in yards per game, first in points per game, ninth in offensive DVOA, and second in EPA/play. Dak Prescott was the MVP runner up for his efforts too, putting up a career year.

In many respects, it felt like the McCarthy era was really just getting started. The longtime offensive playcaller was finally doing what he loves most, and the Cowboys were thriving as a result. Then came the Wild Card playoff loss.

Ever since last year concluded, things have felt off in Dallas. Start with the fact that Jones refused to extend McCarthy’s contract, opting for an unusual tactic of letting his coach go into the final year of his deal. Then, the front office dragged their feet even longer than usual in getting extensions done for Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. Plenty of other decisions led to the 2024 season kicking off with arguably the least anticipation among fans in a decade.

Then the season began, and things felt even worse. The team is 3-3 and has yet to win at home. In fact, they’ve been blown out in all three home games, with a spirited fourth quarter performance against the Ravens putting some low-budget lipstick on a pig for them. The defense has not been great, though it’s hard to find much fault with a unit that was forced to start four backups this past week and had eight backups playing 25% or more of the snaps Sunday.

The offense is the bigger issue, seeing as how they’re mostly healthy. Things have regressed sharply from last year, as McCarthy’s offense currently ranks 14th in yards per game, 19th in points per game, 25th in offensive DVOA, and 25th in EPA/play.

Another crucial statistic is drive success rate, which measures how often an offense’s down series results in either a first down or touchdown. Last year, the Cowboys tied the 49ers for the best mark in the league at 78%. So far this year, it’s dropped down to 69%, which ranks 19th in the NFL.

The offense is struggling – that’s putting it politely – and the team cannot get up for home games. A year ago, they were undefeated in the regular season at home, and they were 21-4 in AT&T Stadium from 2021 to 2023. Defending their home turf had become a point of emphasis under McCarthy, but now the team plays its worst football in front of the home crowd.

So what’s going on? What solutions does McCarthy have heading into the bye?

Last year saw the team enter their bye week feeling similarly disjointed, and they emerged from the week of rest to win six of their next seven and secure the NFC East title. Can McCarthy pull another rabbit out of his hat? Supposedly he’s asking his players to take a long look in the mirror this week in an effort to rediscover their identity.

Still, these are not problems that the team should be dealing with in Year 5 of the McCarthy era. The culture should be well established, the offense should be capable of at least competing in shootouts, and there shouldn’t be so many miscommunications between your star quarterback and star receiver. There are plenty of cracks forming in the glass of this team right now, and the pressure in Dallas never lets up.

McCarthy will get the chance to course correct, and he’ll need that to happen right away. Jones was adamant that he’s not going to fire McCarthy, but he also knows he won’t need to. If the former Packers coach can’t figure things out, his contract will merely expire, just as his predecessor in Dallas had happen.

And if the cracks that are now forming turn into shattered glass, it will be very hard not to endorse the idea of pulling the plug on this coaching staff. Too many things have gone wrong since that Wild Card playoff game against McCarthy’s former team to stomach more of the same. There’s little guarantee that another coach can bring the change necessary in Dallas, but McCarthy has the credentials to figure things out before then. And if he can’t, then why is he even here?


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